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Call or fold

Pot odds compare what a call costs with what the pot will hold once you call. If you call 6 chips and the pot ends up at 24, you're putting in one chip of every four: the call breaks even if you win the pot one time in four, 25% of the time. Then you compare that price with your odds of hitting, which come from your outs.

No calculator needed: where the price comes from, the three numbers worth knowing by heart, how often each draw comes in, a hand worked step by step and an exercise to try yourself.

First lesson · 6 min The cards A worked example The exercise

How to calculate pot odds

There are 12 chips in the pot. Your opponent bets 6, so the pot is now 18. To stay in, you put in 6. If you call, the final pot is 24: what was there, their bet and your call, each counted once.

Cut the final pot into pieces the size of your call: there are four, and one is yours. That's the price: one in four, which players also write as 3 to 1 (three pieces that aren't yours for every one that is) or as 25%. Picture the same spot four times: you call 6 each time, 24 in all, and if you win once you collect 24. You break even. Win more often and calling gains chips; win less often and it loses them.

Three bets, three prices

The price depends only on how big the bet is compared with the pot. These three sizes are the ones you'll see almost every time.

  • If they bet

    A third of the pot

    One in five (4 to 1)

    You need to win 20% of the time

    10outs

  • If they bet

    Half the pot

    One in four (3 to 1)

    You need to win 25% of the time

    12outs

  • If they bet

    The size of the pot

    One in three (2 to 1)

    You need to win 33% of the time

    16outs

From pot odds to outs

To decide whether to call with a draw, you turn the price into cards. On the turn you see six cards, your two and the four on the board, which leaves 46 that could come on the river. At a price of one in four, you need one card in four of those 46 to help you: split the 46 into groups of four and you get eleven groups plus two spare cards, which make a twelfth. You need twelve outs, one per group.

You don't have to split the deck every time. Looking only at the next card, the three prices always ask for the same: ten outs for one in five, twelve for one in four, sixteen for one in three. On the flop 47 cards are unseen and the numbers come out the same.

A worked example

You hold the jack and ten of diamonds. After the turn the board is nine of diamonds, eight of clubs, two of diamonds and three of spades. There were 20 chips in the pot.

The board

9 8 2 3
20 Pot

You

J 10
1

Count your outs

15outs

Your fifteen outs

  • A
  • K
  • Q
  • 8
  • 7
  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • Q
  • 7
  • Q
  • 7
  • Q
  • 7

Four diamonds: nine more diamonds complete the flush. Jack, ten, nine and eight: a queen or a seven makes a straight, eight cards. The queen and seven of diamonds count for both and are counted once: fifteen outs.

  • 2

    If they bet 10, half the pot

    You call

    They bet 10: you call 10 into a final pot of 40

    The final pot will be 40 and you call 10: one in four, which asks for twelve outs. You have fifteen. Call, with room to spare.

  • 3

    If they bet 20, the whole pot

    You fold

    They bet 20: you call 20 into a final pot of 60

    The final pot will be 60 and you call 20: one in three, which asks for sixteen. You have fifteen. One card short: fold.

Same cards: you call one bet and fold to another. What decides isn't how pretty your draw looks. It's the price.

Outs and odds

The next-card column looks at the river from the turn, with 46 cards unseen. Use it as a check: if your draw's percentage is higher than the one the price asks for, the call is profitable.

Draw Outs Next card Turn and river
Gutshot 4 9% 16%
Open-ended straight 8 17% 31%
Flush draw 9 20% 35%
Flush draw and gutshot 12 26% 45%
Flush and open-ended 15 33% 54%

That's why the flush shows 20% here and 19% on the flop page: on the flop 47 cards are unseen, not 46, and nine out of 47 is a little less. The turn-and-river column counts from the flop, with 47 unseen, and only applies if you'll see both cards without calling again. If your opponent can bet again on the turn, count only the next card.

Outs that don't save you

An out completes your hand, but it doesn't always win you the pot. If you know your opponent has three of a kind, the card that gives you a flush and also pairs the board gives them a full house, and the full house beats your flush. When you know something about their hand, count only the clean outs: the ones that win the pot for you and not for them.

Reading the flop

Your turn

Work them out in your head, with the three numbers above.

  1. 1

    On the turn there are 30 chips in the pot and your opponent bets 10. You have an open-ended straight draw. Do you call?

    Show the answer

    The final pot would be 50 and you call 10: five pieces, one yours, one in five. That price asks for ten outs and the open-ended draw has eight. Fold.

  2. 2

    Same hand, but your opponent bets 5. Now what?

    Show the answer

    The final pot would be 40 and you call 5: eight pieces, one in eight. With 46 unseen, one in eight asks for six outs, and you have eight. Call: against a small bet, even a modest draw gets there.

  3. 3

    On the flop you have a flush draw. There are 18 in the pot and your opponent bets 18. Do you call?

    Show the answer

    They bet the size of the pot: the price is one in three, which asks for sixteen outs. The flush draw has nine. Looking at the next card, fold.

Deciding well and losing

You call with twelve outs against a price that asks for twelve, and the river bricks. The call was right. What the count promises isn't that you win this hand, but that the decision, repeated, doesn't cost you chips. Whether a decision was right is settled by the price against your outs, not by the card that came.

One warning: this count looks only at what's already in the pot. If more chips could be won later (what players call implied odds), the count would change, and that comes later in the course.

Path 6 · 5 lessons · 38 min

Knowing whether to call

In the course

Pot odds, played

Counting outs comes in path 5, and the price has a whole path of its own, path 6, "Knowing whether to call": five lessons where you call or fold with the count in front of you. They come in order inside the course, which starts with the cards.

  1. How many cards help you Path 5

    You will count the cards that complete your draw, without mistaking them for winning.

    7 min

  2. The price of calling

    Before calling you will know what the pot will hold and what share you put in.

    8 min

  3. How many cards you need

    You'll turn the price into the outs you need to call.

    7 min

  4. Call or fold

    You will decide whether to call by comparing your live cards, also with two draws at once, with those the price asks for.

    8 min

  5. Cards that do not save you

    Given a fact about their hand, you will count only the cards that win you the pot.

    7 min

  6. A whole hand

    You will carry the price from the flop to the turn decision.

    8 min

Start the course from the beginning See all eighteen paths

Frequently asked questions

What are pot odds in poker?

Pot odds are the ratio between what a call costs and what the pot will hold if you call. If you call 6 into a final pot of 24, the price is one in four, or 3 to 1: the call breaks even if you win the hand 25% of the time, and makes money if you win more often.

How do you calculate poker odds?

Count the cards that complete your hand, your outs, and divide by the cards you haven't seen: 47 on the flop and 46 on the turn. A flush draw has nine outs: nine out of 46 is 20% for the river. From the flop, seeing both the turn and the river, it comes in 35% of the time.

How do you calculate pot odds?

Add the pot, your opponent's bet and your call: that's the final pot. Divide it by your call to see how many pieces there are; one of them is yours. With 12 in the pot and a bet of 6, the final pot is 24 and your call 6: one in four, 25%.

What is the rule of 2 and 4?

A shortcut: multiply your outs by 2 for a rough percentage that the next card helps you, and by 4 for both remaining cards from the flop. With nine outs on the flop that gives 18% and 36%, close to the exact 19% and 35%. The second only holds if you'll see both cards without calling again.

Do I need a pot odds calculator?

No. Three numbers settle almost every hand: a bet of a third of the pot asks for ten outs, half the pot asks for twelve, and a pot-sized bet sixteen. Counting your outs is the only thing that changes from hand to hand.

If I call with good pot odds and lose, was it a mistake?

No. The price doesn't promise you win the hand: it promises that the decision, repeated many times, doesn't cost you chips. A hand lost on a correct call is still a correct call.

Keep going

The flop Reading the flop What you have, what the board allows and what could still come. With nothing What is a bluff Why it works and how to count whether it pays off. Beyond the table Poker and decision-making Judging the decision, not the result, with hands from the course.

First, know which cards help you

To know whether a call pays, you count your outs, the cards that complete your hand, and that takes reading every card at a glance. The course starts there and gets to the price in path 6, "Knowing whether to call".

First lesson · 6 min The cards Every card has two facts: rank and suit. You'll learn to read both, and which one says which card is worth more. Play now

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